An Optimal Control for Ebola Virus Disease with a Convex Incidence Rate: Imputing from the Outbreak in Uganda.

Abstract

Ebola Virus disease (EVD) is an emerging and re-emerging zoonotic disease which mostly occur in Africa. Both prediction of the next EVD and controlling an ongoing outbreak remain challenging to disease prone countries. Depending on previous experiences to curb an outbreak is subjective and often inadequate as temporal socioeconomic advances are dynamic and complex at each disease. We hypothesize that a scientific model would predict EVD disease outbreak control. In this work, a mathematical model with a convex incidence rate for an optimal control model of Ebola Virus Disease is formulated and analyzed. An optimal control strategy which aims at reducing the number of infected individuals in the population and increasing the number of recovered through treatment is evaluated. Three control measures: tracing of contacts, lock-down and treatment have been considered. A qualitative analysis and numerical experiments are performed on the model and the findings reveal that the most expensive strategy involved imposing lock-down and contact tracing of the infected while the cheapest alternative was lock-down and treatment of the infected. Hence, policy makers should concentrate on treatment and lock down to combat the disease.