Can improved diagnostics reduce mortality from Tuberculous meningitis? Findings from a 6.5-year cohort in Uganda [version 1; referees: awaiting peer review]

Abstract

Background: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the second most common cause of meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa and is notoriously difficult to diagnose. We describe the impact of improved TBM diagnostics over 6.5 years at two Ugandan referral hospitals. Methods: Cohort one received cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) smear microscopy only (2010-2013). Cohort two received smear microscopy and Xpert MTB/Rif (Xpert) on 1ml unprocessed CSF at physician discretion (2011-2013). Cohort three received smear microscopy, routine liquid-media culture and Xpert on large volume centrifuged CSF (2013-2017) for all meningitis suspects with a negative CSF cryptococcal antigen. We compared rates of microbiologically confirmed TBM and hospital outcomes over time. Results: 1672 HIV-infected adults presenting with suspected meningitis underwent lumbar puncture, of which 33% (558/1672) had negative CSF cryptococcal antigen and 12% (195/1672) were treated for TB meningitis. Over the study period, microbiological confirmation of TBM increased from 3% to 41% (P<0.01) and there was a decline in in-hospital mortality from 57% to 41% (P=0.27) amongst those with a known outcome. Adjusting for definite TBM diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy use, and using imputed data, assuming 50% of those with an unknown outcome died, the odds of dying were nearly twice as high in cohort one (adjusted odds ratio 1.7, 95% CI 0.7 to 4.4) compared to cohort three. Sensitivity of Xpert was 63% (38/60) and culture was 65% (39/60) against a composite reference standard. Conclusions: As TBM diagnostics have improved, microbiologically-confirmed TBM diagnoses have increased and in-hospital mortality has declined. Yet, mortality due to TB meningitis remains unacceptably high and further measures are needed to improve outcomes from TBM in Uganda.