Environmental Uncertainty and Supply Chain Resilience among Manufacturing Firms in Uganda: The Mediating Role of Supply Chain Innovativeness

Abstract

This study examines the relationships between environmental uncertainty (EU), supply chain innovativeness (SCI), and supply chain resilience (SCRE) among manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Uganda. Specifically, it investigates the mediating role of supply chain innovativeness in the relationship between environmental uncertainty and supply chain resilience. A cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted using structured questionnaires administered to 400 manufacturing SMEs located in Kampala, Wakiso, Mukono, and Jinja districts. The data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) with Smart PLS 4. The results reveal that environmental uncertainty positively influences both supply chain resilience and supply chain innovativeness. Supply chain innovativeness also exerts a significant positive effect on supply chain resilience and partially mediates the relationship between environmental uncertainty and supply chain resilience. These findings suggest that manufacturing SMEs enhance resilience by developing innovative capabilities that enable them to anticipate, adapt to, and recover from environmental disruptions. The cross-sectional design limits causal inference and the ability to capture resilience development over time. Future studies should employ longitudinal or mixed-methods approaches to examine the dynamic processes through which firms build resilience under environmental uncertainty. Manufacturing SMEs should strengthen innovation capabilities by investing in flexible production systems, digital technologies, collaborative relationships, and continuous product and process innovation to improve resilience against supply chain disruptions. This study contributes to the supply chain resilience literature by integrating Resource-Based Theory and Dynamic Capability Theory to explain how supply chain innovativeness transforms environmental uncertainty into resilience.