Modeling the effect of alcohol consumption on the progression dynamics of Hepatitis C infection with treatment

Abstract

This research introduces a model that integrates a logistic approach to alcohol consumption to delve into the effect of alcohol consumption on the advancement of hepatitis C infection, evaluates the effects of addressing hepatitis C treatment and reducing alcohol consumption to minimal levels in the control of hepatitis C infection. The hepatitis C model was well established and biologically reasonable, indicating that all model solutions were non-negative and associated with non-negative initial conditions. Stability analysis revealed that the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points were locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number, R0H ≤ 1 and R0H > 1 respectively. Sensitivity and numerical analysis of the model showed that improving treatment for individuals with chronic infection, along with reducing alcohol consumption, led to a notable decrease in the number of people affected by chronic infection. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Hepatitis C (HCV) remains a major global health challenge. This study uses a mathematical model to explore how alcohol use and medical treatment affect the spread and progression of the disease. The model shows two possible outcomes: either the disease fades away or it continues to spread. Which outcome occurs depends on a key number called the basic reproduction number. If this number is less than one, each infected person spreads the virus to fewer than one other person on average, and the disease eventually dies out. But if the number is greater than one, the disease can keep spreading in the population. Computer simulations based on the model suggest that increasing access to treatment for people with chronic HCV and helping them reduce alcohol use can greatly reduce the number of long-term infections. Reducing alcohol consumption not only helps protect the liver but also makes medical treatment more effective.