Assessing the validity of post-discharge readmission and mortality as a composite outcome among newborns in Uganda

Abstract

Background: Composite outcomes, which include mortality and readmission rates, are often used in risk prediction models following hospital discharge when event rates for the primary outcome of interest, mortality, are low. However, greater readmission rates may result in reduced mortality making interpretation of the composite outcome difficult. We assess the usefulness of a composite outcome of post-discharge readmission and mortality as a target outcome in this context. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of data collected among mothers and their newborn(s) admitted for delivery at two regional referral hospitals in Uganda. Six-week post discharge mortality (all-cause) and readmission in newborn infants were analyzed using a competing risk framework. The Sub Distribution Hazard Ratios (SHRs) were compared across predictor variables to examine the relationship between the two outcomes. Results: A total of 6040 newborns with complete six-week follow-up were enrolled, of whom 50.6% were male and 64% of mothers delivered via caesarean section. Thirty-five (0.58%) infants died within the six-week follow-up period and 241 (3.99%) were readmitted. Of the 206 predictors, 81 had a consistent association with both outcomes. These include a higher weight (SHRs: 0.14, 0.68) and length of the baby (SHRs: 0.85, 0.91). However, 125 variables depicted an association in opposing directions which may be linked to social and financial barriers to care-seeking. These include a travel time to the hospital of greater than 1 hour (SHRs: 1.4, 0.28). Conclusion: While mortality is unequivocally a negative outcome, readmission may be a positive outcome, reflecting health seeking, or a negative outcome, reflecting recurrent illness. This directional dichotomy is reflected to varying degrees within different variables. When using a composite outcome for a prediction model, caution should be exercised to ensure that the model identifies individuals at risk of the intended outcomes of interest, rather than merely the proxies used to represent those outcomes. Identifying predictors with a consistent relationship for both outcomes may yield a more optimized and less biased prediction model for use in clinical care.