Development and Validation of ‘Prediction of Adverse Drug Reactions in Older Inpatients (PADROI)’ Risk Assessment Tool

Abstract

Background: Adverse drug reactions (ADR) detection and prediction methods in hospitalized older adults remain imprecise. The identification of the risk factors for ADRs in this group of patients is crucial to develop plausible prediction models. Objective: This study aimed at developing and validating a “Prediction of ADR in Older Inpatients (PADROI)” risk assessment tool in hospitalized older adults. Methods and Materials: We had previously conducted a derivational study that aimed to determine the risk factors of ADRs in hospitalized older adults. We developed the PADROI model as a potential ADR risk assessment tool incorporating 8 predictors each given a score by rounding off the respective adjusted odds ratios (AORs) to the nearest whole number. Subsequently, we conducted another prospective cohort among adults aged60 years and older admitted to Gynecology and Obstetrics, Medical, Oncology, Surgery, and Psychiatry wards at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) from July 5 to September 17, 2021. Results: A total of 124 participants, 70 females and 54 males aged 60–95 years, were included in this validation cohort; 62 of them experienced 90 ADRs. When applied to the derivational cohort, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the PADROI model was shown to be 0.896 (0.869–0.923; at 95% CI). In the validation study, AUROC of PADROI was 0.917 (0.864– 0.971 at 95% CI; p < 0.001). Overall, PADROI correctly predicted 91.7% of those who experienced an ADR. Conclusion: Using the adjusted odds ratios from our derivational cohort, we developed an ADR prediction tool (PADROI) that achieved an excellent AUROC (0.917), high sensitivity (87.1%) and specificity (90.3%). The current model demonstrated a high potential for clinical applicability which can be strengthened if similar results are reproduced in larger and multi-centered studies.