One-year incidence and standardized mortality rates for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Uganda

Abstract

Background: Little is known about the survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer in resource limited settings. Objectives: We sought to determine the incidence of one-year all-cause mortality and age-standardized mortality rates for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Uganda. Methods: Prospective cohort of 92 participants with histologically confi rmed esophageal squamous cell cancer at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital, southwestern Uganda. Participants were enrolled between January 2018 and March 2020 and followed until death. We used Kaplan-Meier methods to determine all- cause mortality and median survival time; Cox regression to determine predictors of survival; and determined age-standardized mortality rates (SMR) using the WHO standard population. Results: All 92 participants contributed a total 353.8 months at risk, 89 (96.7%) died representing an incidence rate of 251.5 (95% CI 204.3, 309.6) per 1000 person-months. The difference in the one-year risk of all-cause mortality among men and women was negative 6.4 percentage points. The overall SMR was 9.96 (95%CI 7.63, 12.29) per 100,000 and median survival time was 3.03 (95% CI 2.60, 3.47), shortest (1.77 months) among men younger than 45 and longest (7.77 months) among women aged 75 years or greater. In a fully adjusted model, high socioeconomic status predicted longer survival while increasing age and low socioeconomic status predicted shorter survival. Conclusion: After diagnosis, the one-year incidence rates of all-cause mortality and age-standardized mortality rates among ESCC patients in rural Uganda are high. Initiatives to improve access to oncology care for diagnosis and treatment should be prioritized to improve overall survival.